Underdogs vs Favorites: When to Bet Big on the Long Shot

26 August 2026

Let’s face it, nothing gets the adrenaline pumping quite like betting on sports. Whether it's the thrill of a last-second buzzer-beater or the gut-wrenching feeling as your team inches toward victory, sports betting is a rollercoaster of emotions. But here's the million-dollar question: Should you always bet on the favorite?

While it might seem like a safe bet to side with the team or athlete heavily favored to win, there's a lot more to it than meets the eye. The truth is, sometimes betting on the underdog—the long shot—can pay off in a way that betting on the favorite never could. So, when should you bet big on the underdog? Let’s dive into the world of sports betting and explore the delicate dance between underdogs and favorites.

What Makes an Underdog?

Before we get into strategies, it’s important to understand what defines an underdog. In simplest terms, an underdog is the team or individual expected to lose. They’ve got the odds stacked against them, and sportsbooks aren’t shy about letting you know. The odds of an underdog winning are typically much higher—which means bigger payouts for those daring enough to bet on them.

But let’s be clear: just because a team is labeled the “underdog” doesn’t mean they have no chance of winning. Far from it. We've all seen shocking upsets in sports where an underdog rises to the occasion and pulls off a victory no one saw coming. Think of Leicester City winning the Premier League in 2016—an event that had 5000-to-1 odds. Now that’s a long shot that paid off!

The Psychology Behind Betting on Favorites

It’s no secret that most people gravitate toward betting on favorites. Why? Because it feels safe. There’s a sense of comfort in knowing that the majority of people agree with your pick. Favorites are often the teams or athletes that have proven themselves consistently over time, and on paper, they are the stronger option.

But here’s the catch: betting on the favorite doesn’t always pay well. Let’s say you bet $100 on a heavy favorite with -200 odds. If they win, you’re only going to make $50 in profit. Not bad, but nothing to write home about either. Compare that to an underdog with +200 odds—if you place the same $100 bet and they win, you’re walking away with $200 in profit.

So, while betting on favorites might feel like the “smart” move, it’s not necessarily the most lucrative one. That’s where the underdog comes in.

Why Betting on the Underdog Can Be Lucrative

1. Higher Payouts

Let’s start with the obvious: underdogs have higher payouts. The potential for a big return is what makes betting on the long shot so enticing. When you bet on an underdog, you’re taking on more risk, but you’re also positioning yourself to win much more than you would by betting on a favorite.

For example, if you bet $100 on a team with +300 odds (a significant underdog), you stand to win $300 in profit if they pull off the upset. Compare this to betting on a favorite with -150 odds, where the same $100 bet would only yield $66.67 in profit. The difference is clear.

2. Underdogs Have Something to Prove

Another factor to consider is the mental edge that underdogs often possess. When a team or athlete is labeled the underdog, they’re aware of it. They know that no one expects them to win, and that can be a powerful motivator. Sometimes, this leads to a level of performance that exceeds expectations. When a team is playing with a chip on their shoulder, they can become dangerous.

3. Oddsmakers Aren’t Always Right

Here’s something that might surprise you: the oddsmakers aren’t perfect. Sure, they’re professionals, and they base their odds on data, analysis, and trends. But at the end of the day, sports are unpredictable. Injuries happen, players have off days, and weather conditions can change everything.

Sometimes, sportsbooks overestimate favorites and underestimate underdogs. For example, if a star player on the favorite’s team gets injured in the first quarter, the dynamics of the game shift—suddenly, that underdog team looks a whole lot more appealing. In these situations, the odds set by the sportsbook don’t always reflect what’s happening on the field.

4. Betting Against Public Perception

Believe it or not, betting against the public can work in your favor. Sportsbooks know that most casual bettors will put their money on the favorite, so they sometimes inflate the odds to encourage balanced action on both sides. This means that underdogs can sometimes have inflated odds simply because the public perception is skewed in favor of the favorite.

By betting on the underdog, you’re essentially taking a contrarian approach—and if the underdog wins, you’re cashing in on the public’s misplaced confidence.

When Should You Bet Big on the Long Shot?

Now that we’ve covered why betting on underdogs can be profitable, let’s talk about when it makes sense to bet big on the long shot. After all, you can’t just bet on every underdog and expect to win consistently. Here are some strategies to consider:

1. Look for Value in the Odds

The key to successful betting is finding value in the odds. This means identifying situations where the odds don’t accurately reflect the underdog’s true chances of winning. For example, if a team has been performing well recently, but the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to their improved form, you might find value in betting on them—even if they’re labeled as the underdog.

2. Consider Matchups and Styles

In many sports, styles make fights. This means that certain teams or athletes have styles of play that match up well against their opponents, even if they’re the underdog. For example, in the NFL, a team with a strong running game might match up well against a team with a weak run defense. In these cases, the underdog could have a better chance of winning than the odds suggest.

3. Pay Attention to Injuries and Roster Changes

Injuries are a huge factor in sports, and sometimes the impact of an injury isn’t fully reflected in the odds. If a key player on the favorite’s team is injured or playing at less than 100%, the underdog’s chances of winning increase. Similarly, if an underdog is getting back a star player after an injury, they might perform better than expected.

4. Bet on Underdogs in Rivalry Games

Rivalry games are notorious for producing upsets. When two teams have a history of bad blood, you can throw the record books out the window. In these types of games, emotions run high, and underdogs often play above their usual level. So, if you’re considering betting on an underdog, rivalry games are a good place to start.

5. Look for Situational Factors

Sometimes, situational factors can create an opportunity for an underdog to shine. For example, if a favorite team is playing back-to-back games, they might be fatigued, giving the underdog an edge. Similarly, if an underdog is playing at home, they may benefit from a boost in crowd support. Paying attention to these types of factors can help you identify when to bet big on the long shot.

Balancing Risk and Reward

While betting on underdogs can be profitable, it’s important to remember that it’s a high-risk, high-reward strategy. You’re going to lose more bets than you win when betting on long shots—that’s just the nature of the game. But the key is that when you do win, the payouts are larger, which can offset the losses.

The trick is to find the right balance. Don’t go all-in on every underdog, but don’t be afraid to take a chance when you see value in the odds. Sports betting is all about managing risk and reward—and sometimes, the biggest rewards come from betting on the underdog.

Conclusion

Betting on sports is a thrilling experience, and while favorites might seem like the safe bet, there’s something undeniably exciting about backing the underdog. The key to success is finding value in the odds, understanding matchups, and considering situational factors that can give the underdog a fighting chance.

So, the next time you’re staring at the odds board, don’t be afraid to bet big on the long shot. Who knows? You just might hit the jackpot.